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CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 4:00am EST
. senate is expected to vote this afternoon on a bill to suspend the debt ceiling for -- why not suspend it indefinitely? the house passed the measure last week. the senate version includes several republican amendments, matching spending cuts, every dollar increase in the ceiling and that's not expected to get passed. it will suspend it to may the 19th when it will be raised by the amount the treasury borrows in the interim. why -- greg is with us. greg is the economist. can we just get rid of the debt ceiling? it's a real brawl. >> just deep six that sucker like no other country deals with this it ottic device. hey, i'm going to borrow some money, but i'll think twice over whether i'm going to pay the bill when it comes. >> what if it was the founding father himself who said i think we ought to have a debt ceiling so as to avoid fiscal recklessness? >> well, in fact, the debt ceiling, the reason we have one is because up until 100 years ago, we voted on every bond issue individually. so you think it's bad now, just imagine if we had had that situation. but looking forward, though, this
CNBC
Feb 6, 2013 12:00pm EST
fiscal cliff and debt ceiling. we only took temporary action, not like these two problems are going away and will hit us in the spring and the market seems to be oblivious here. >> you're looking for the s&p to drop 200 points in the first half of the year. >> i'm still doing that. the market started with people complacent and now almost euphoric. everybody you have on the program thinks the market is going higher. the market, when it has a good january has a great year. a general feeling of counterfeit and we hacounterfeit -- of comfort and we have a lot of hurdles to get over. a 2% pay cut and taxes going up on upper brackets. there are other taxes put in place and the debt ceiling will be dealt with. that will be a big battle between entitlement cuts and raising the debt ceiling. i think all these issues will bear on the market when people are very enthusiastic about it. i think this market is vulnerable. >> interesting to date, with all the noise in the market, stocks have been able to put on pretty good ear plugs. >> that's often the case. you've been around long enough. sometimes t
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 3:00pm EST
the whole fiscal cliff ended up. what do you expect with the debt ceiling because as we sit down here on the floor of the new york stock exchange watching a market that has largely gone up and not paid much attention to that fight of late, what are your expectations? can you expect anything better than we got with the cliff? >> i don't think we're going to see the debt ceiling being an issue. i think it would be foolish to hold the nation hostage by having a fight over the debt ceiling. i think we'll see it with sequestration. that's coming march 1st, not too far away and with the budget and the continuing resolutions. i think that's where the real fight will be, and i think we're seeing the consequences of an economy that's not investing, a government that has to pull back and what we saw in the gdp report yesterday, and, you know, who knows what we'll see tomorrow on the jobs report, but it's slowed down the economy and we're all waiting. >> absolutely. mark, good to have you on the program. thanks very much. >> thanks, maria, thanks, scott. >> we'll see you soon. the dow on pa
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 4:00pm EST
voted to extend the nation's debt ceiling for multiple months. the new deadline now will be may 19th, and that tees up now the next fiscal fight here in washington which will come on march the 1st. it will be over the so-called sequester. all of those automatic spending cuts, will they be allowed to go into effect? that will now be the next big question we wrestle with here in washington, maria. >> thanks so much. >> january jobs figures taking center stage first thing tomorrow morning as the white house shutters its jobs council. hampton pearson on what's sure to move the markets. >> reporter: hi, maria. tomorrow's job reports will have two part, the headline numbers on jobs and the unemployment rate. our cnbc survey predicts employers increasing non-farm payrolls by 1 of,000 jobs versus 155,000 in december. the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.8%. now today we heard that first-time unemployment claims actually jumped by 38000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, that according to the labor department. lost in yesterday's focus on negative gdp was the january adp estimate on priva
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 4:00pm EST
do have the debt ceiling fight on the horizon. that's taken a back seat to this momentum in stocks. >> yeah, absolutely. i think that investors should be braced for a potential pullback, but trying to trade it i think is perilous. look, would i have expected a fairly significant pullback in december based on the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff debate. it didn't happen. i think that we were at that time telling our clients to look through the potential weakness and focus on the value and the fact that equities are very likely to be higher in a year from now, concentrate on the longer run, invest, don't trade and we think you'll be well served by that. >> give me your best idea right here then, eric. >> well, i think equities. simply the equity trade. >> what do you remember want to do, etfs, my spector sectors, etfs, how do you do it? >> very broadly. we're an active manager and use a multi-manager approach so we're broadly diversified across countries. emerging markets looks better than developed and procyclical stocks look better in general. >> we've got the facebook numbers out,
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 6:00am EST
right now. let's take a look at the next idea about the debt ceiling debate. i think this is a really important finding here, guys. we ask do you think congress is going to increase the debt ceiling every time it's reached, refuse to raise it at some point and don't know? you can see 86% are saying that congress will raise the debt ceiling every time it's reached this year, when i think about some of the reasons why stocks have gotten higher because i think that thread along with the fiscal cliff has come out of the market and that there's overwhelming sentiment that coss i solve the get problem. we asked wall street to grade our treasury secretary going out and one coming in. you can see a pretty strong sentiment that he was a seed secretary with a 2.2. jack lew, the sentiment there. 2.0. one more thing on the deficit i just want to say and maybe this is worthy of discussion here. i think this is a sign that things have improved, at these economists and guys on wall street are saying we should solve the deficit and do it now. i think if things were as bad as they were say the
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 4:00am EST
of the debt ceiling? >> iveng what we're seeing is some of the political brinksman ship around the debt ceiling may be a thing of the past. the renls certainly got hurt politically trying to use that tool as leverage. 6/hopefully it's an indication that that particular kind of brinksman ship is behind us. >> we'll see. i never put it beyond politicians. when the story changes, they'll change. julie, now win promise you can have your coffee break or tea break. try tea, it's very nice. english breakfast. very good thing to have first thing in the morning. we'll come back to you, jules, julia. >>> in the united states, in addition to the jobs report, there are some other pieces of the economic data. the final look at january consumer sentiment is out at 9:55 a.m. eastern. on the corporate front, exxon mobil, chevron, merck, tyson foods all report earnings before the bell. january sales are also out. they're expected to be seen at the strong rate compared to last year. this is all thanks to pent up demand as well as the improving housing market. and if that is not enough for you, milli
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 1:00pm EST
that have to happen. >> we did see a positive deal, moving the debt ceiling negotiations back a little bit we got a bit of a bounce. >> what i mean, you'll probably -- listen, we had the bounce today, down 130 points based on political instability in europe. rally right back, the president going to get through that and talk about long-term cuts. i don't think you'll get much more, we'll be stuck here around 14,000. >> long-term ron barron was on cnbc. he made a pretty outrageous projection, we've all been talking about it down here. let's take a listen to what he had to say. >> i'm expecting 7% average growth for extended period of time since we're below where stocks normally trade. how long will that take? 7% a year, you double your money every 10 years. that means if the stock market is 14,000 now, it could be 28,000 in 10 years and 50 or 60,000 in 20 years. >> ron barron is a very successful money manager. he's made a lot of money for his clients and for himself but that sound bite has a lot of people scratching their heads. >> i checked those numbers on 7%, with or without i
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 4:00pm EST
deal with spending cuts and the debt ceiling debate. whether or not that's it. for the meantime, the markets run a long time just because they are soaking up all the stimulus from the fed. >> a lot of stimulus from the other central banks cutting trase today. greg, you want to get in front of this train and fight the fed? >> yeah, i think that the fed is going to continue pushing pretty hard this year but equity investors have to take a look at what's in the fed's tool backs and realize they have shot every arrow that they have got. they will keep gig qe this year, maybe another $1 trillion but even inside the fed there's doubts about how much more effective will be at this stage, what, with long-term interest rates as low as they are. tomorrow i don't expect any fireworks from them. i'll be interested to see how they characterize the economy, whether they are getting more comfortable with it now that we have the biggest piece of the fiscal cliff out of the way or whether they are still concerned that employment is sluggish an inflation is tracking kind of low. >> yeah. i mean, we ha
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 7:00pm EST
today congress did pass a debt ceiling extension so we won't go bankrupt immediately. joining me now, cnbc chief international correspondent michelle caruso cabrera and laffer. i want to ask you about this whole business. government spending on defense really collapsed and helped bring down yesterday's gdp. >> yes, it did. >> so all the liberals are saying see, we told you so, if you cut spending, you're going to ruin the economy. do you believe that? >> no, not at all. government spending is taxation. milton always said it. the government redistributes resources. you can see it really clearly. two-person world, farmer a and farmer b, if farmer b gets unemployment benefits, who do you think pays for them, farmer a? you know, government spending is taxation. the reason we have the great recession is because of the government spending, not in spite of it. >> follow-up. it would be bullish for economic growth. >> yes, it would. >> but this is the argument i get. it shows up as a negative in the gdp accounts. at least some of it. >> you're right. >> so what do you do? do you just go on a
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 1:00pm EST
have punted down the road the idea of using the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip. that's question number one. number two, can the rate of earnings grow? the earnings numbers are okay. earnings growth has slowed. can that rate of earnings growth sustain this kind of rally, these kinds of prices and evaluations. >> what do you think, kenny? >> i think it's ahead of itself. listen, the government put the sequestration and debt ceiling on vacation for six to ten weeks. therefore, the markets are concentrating right now. as we move through february, you can believe sequestration is going to come to the top again. when it does, it will have that whole sense of anxiety. >> let me answer questions. we are seeing revenue growth now. we have no revenue growth last quarter, now almost 4% in the quarter. if we get an acceleration even modestly top line growth, 5% maybe, that will go right to the bottom line. >> i want to get to rick santelli. he had an auction that went off the board. how does it look, ricky. >> doesn't look bad. we'll give it a grade in a minute. one issue market at 1:00 eas
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 9:00am EST
, maybe some problem with the debt ceiling negotiations. maybe some other kind of macroevent. last night saying to me, wouldn't it be ironic or weird if the big pest thing that happened hurricane the biggest fear of macromelt down never happened but instead what we got is boring old no growth? something nobody was really set up to deal with right now. that is not the dominant emotion. right now the jeep feeling is the bulls are still in charge. a lot of e-mails about siegel, jeremy siegel, 70% chance the dow will hit 15,000 this year. that was widely commented, to me at least, this morning. he sees a big increase in consumer spending. says the housing recovery is going to continue. home builders had good numbers but they are down. remember, the problem suspect the numbers they are reporting, it's the valuations. we've had pulte with good numbers, merit tash, the numbers, two times book for most of the home building companies. two times book for most of the home building companies. women pool, the guidance spectacular, 9.24 to 9.75. right now, still at 9.25. >> 19 1/2. >> to 19.75 on tri
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 7:00pm EST
worried about the china hard landing. we're not worried about the debt ceiling crisis. we're not worried about, well, for the moment, the eu -- we have that kind of psychological factor. a healthy private sector. and the problem is what? the problem is government and bad policy. and that's what we have to offset. >> but jim iuorio, i want to know where to invest. do we buy gold, silver, and commodities? do we buy banks, which are lagging a little bit? do we buy industrial cyclicals to play the world boom, if there is such a thing? in other words, how do you invest right now, having passed this 14,000 benchmark? >> well, there's a couple things. first of all, when caterpillar released its earnings it talked about good numbers out of housing. and you stloe in china. you invest in things like copper. you know i still like gold and silver. and today with the green light from the fed i'm still going to stay in things like those. i am in bank of america. i am in health care. i think the stock market looks pretty good. you said before, though, the stock market tends to be a leading indicator of
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 12:00pm EST
with the president and the debt ceiling. similar to what we had in the summer of 2011. >> they gave you a little bit of cover right? they extended at least and kicked the can for a short period of time down the road. so washington at least is going to be out of it. say for another 30 days. before we have to start worrying about the sequester correct? >> correct. >> is there a bubble in bonds? >> there is. if you look at spreads they're much too tight to the curb especially with the high yield. people are looking just at the nominal interest they're collecting but not thinking about the duration of what happens if ultimately the fed withdraws liquidity and rates back up. if the economy were to go back into recession many high yield bonds especially the lower rated ones might have a hard time paying the interest because obviously business would be soft. you have to be careful about the risk that you're taking for that nominal yield of 5 to 5.5%. >> scott, can the market continue to dismiss the under performance of the technology space when you listen to some of the earnings whether in
CNBC
Feb 6, 2013 6:00am EST
to buy equities. >> in our survey, 86% of participants said congress will raise the debt ceiling every time it is reached this year. is that the perception of the market right now? >> i would say that's true. i don't think anybody wants to play brinksmanship. we saw what happened in 27 and what happened the end of the year. i don't think anybody wants to go back there. interestingly enough i think the markets have adjusted to that fact. ever rip time you run to the brink of the cliff and pull back, the markets get used to it. they have adjusted to the fact that could be a possibility and dealing with the fact it's not likely to occur. >> rich, you're very bullish. >> i'm very bullish. i don't think people have noticed the united states is a growth story. we're focused on emerging markets they're a growth story. it's so wrong, it's silly. the projected earnings growth rate, you're a small cap aficionado. i bet you don't know this. the projected growth on russell 2,000 is six times from growth markets. the u.s. is a success story. >> what are the numbers? >> 17% versus 30%. >> in one yea
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 4:00pm EST
debt. extension of the debt ceiling for two years. clarification on europe. first, the recession needs to stabilize, but beyond that, policy initiatives clearly indicate a road to political and fiscal and banking reforms and an indication that europe is serious about improving competitiveness. resumption of growth in emerging economies, like china, and finally the federal successfully engineering a modest increase in interest rates without unleashing runaway inflation. maria, these are tall orders, i know, but resolution of all these issues would be a huge boost to business confidence, capital expenditures and hiring would increase dramatically and revenues would rise, and that's what we need, maria. back to you. >> that's some list, bob. >> pretty ambitious. >> we'll be watching that. not everybody is buying into this bull market theory, by the way. pimco's bill gross is actually warning investors to be afraid, and i mean very afraid, of how inflation and the flood of cheap money will impact investments from here on out. bill joins me exclusively from pimco headquarters in california.
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 7:00pm EST
to do something on sequester or the sky will fall. we have to do something on the debt ceiling or the sky will fall. we have to do something on the continuing resolution or government will shut down and the sky will fall. where do you draw the line? we have a $16 trillion debt in this country. we've got to take a stand. >> howard dean, let me go to you on this because actually you're a tight fisted guy. if i understand it, you want the sequester to go nthrough. $85 billion this year. a little less than 2.5% of the $3.8 trillion budget. if you take out entitlements, then it becomes about a 6%, 7% or 8% cut. what's wrong with that? we're in trouble. doct why can't we do it? >> the sky will fall if you don't deal with the debt ceiling. but i think unfortunately, this is the price that we pay in the fiscal cliff deal. the democrats paid. i said at the time that i thought it was a short term victory for the democrats, but a long term victory for the republicans because we gave away our leverage on tax increases. so, sure, i have no objection to giving away the carried interest on some of t
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 6:00am EST
without merit. president obama has signed a debt ceiling suspension into law. the measure allows the government to keep borrowing to pay its bills. it puts off the next congressional battle over the debt ceiling until may. boeing is asking the faa for permission to resume test flights of its grounded 787 jet. it wants to test the batteries and other components in flight since certain conditions can't be simulated on the ground. the faa is evaluating boeing's request. >>> in wall street 2013 rally interrupted with a major averages suffering their worst one-day loss in a year on monday's trading. the last hour we spoke to goldman's jim o'neil about the prospects of making money in this market. >> i think to sell if you're a medium term player is probably not a smart move. but if you've made all the gains, to take some off the table isn't a crazy idea either. >> joining us now is nouriel roubini, chairman and co-founder of roubini global economics. you're not like a market master, maybe like a market jedi. plus andrew still here from fortune magazine. the one and only. we haven't seen y
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 6:00am EST
spending cuts for every dollar increase in the debt ceiling. those amendments expected to be defeated. the bill won't technically raise the debt ceiling, but it will suspend it until may 19th when it will be raised by the amount that the treasury borrows in the interim. that's how it's going to work. and markets, as we've been talking about on a tear this month with the dow having its best january in decades. but will yesterday's surprising drop in gdp reign in the bulls, it says here? let's get a read on the state of the economy. at least it wasn't a -- that kind of rein. there's three of them. anyway, joining us for the next hour is bob bruska. that's fao -- >> no. you cannot. >> fao economics. as becky said at the top, things are going to go really well or the market is going to have an '87 crash. >> i like the binary outlook. >> everything you said was so good until you gout to that point. >> he usually wears one of these very clever ties. >> i'm not going to give him any -- >> there you go, joe. >> you didn't forget because you are getting up there. >> up there? >> close
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 6:00am EST
like to me but i'm not certain. >> that's a good answer. >> your thoughts on the debt ceiling. >> no. >> you think we are in danger of a bond bubble? >> i don't even know what that is. >> which mario has done a better job monti or draghi? >> monti or draghi? you know i have no idea what you're talking about, so -- >> what's your favorite show on television? >> hmm. "american greed." >> really? >> yeah. >> can you open that up for me? >> oh! >> you just made my day. >> i wish we could show more of that stuff. that was michael james, guys. and he was touched. because he tweets about "american greed" all the time. and i went on to talk to him about his favorite show and he's like god forgive me, but the one when the preacher steals from the church, and he went through this whole thing about how that's his favorite show. matt burke went to harvard he knows his stuff with the ravens and the kicker for the niners, he's a cramer guy and he's a conservative aaa-rated tax-free bond guy. >> i feel so bad for these guys because it's kind of like talking to me about football. if you ask me those
CNBC
Feb 4, 2013 4:00am EST
the debt ceiling. that's good news for markets because it shows politicians are not going to play chicken with the one thing that could really make a difference to the u.s. economy. it does suggest, though, that both the sequester and the continuing resolution might be places where opposition republicans take the opportunity to try to extract some containment trt white house. >> and what's your -- as you've priced that in, what do you expect, actually, the to be the outcome as we head into march towards the end of the month? is there more fiscal drag related tr these talks? >> we still see economic up sides for the u.s. citi economists have improved their growth forecast overall, but this isn't helping and it's not necessarily helping business confidence. what we think markets may not be prepared for is the fact that ee quest ragz is now likely to kick in. these are comments from both parties suggested that they be willing to allow this to happen. it may be the lesser of the evils. >> what are we talking about with sequestration? how much of a hit to the u.s. economy? >> well, aga
CNBC
Feb 4, 2013 5:00pm EST
. >> go on. >> so, now we haven't seen the downgrade and now we're waiting on the next level of debt ceiling debate or the sequestration and you start to see this headline. is this a warning to the other rating agencies -- >> trying to smack them down before -- >> if i were a conspiracy guy, that's -- >> if you were. lay it out. >> don't paint me with that brush. but if i were, this is what i would be saying. >> let's let that sit out there, just sit there. one of wall street's most well-known banking analysts surging you to buy all of the banks. here's what he said earlier today. >> you should be buying goldman sachs, bank of america, u.s. bank corp, you should be buying comerica. what you are going to get is continuous upearnings, inkreeflss in dividends, higher stock buy-back programs and record results. >> was he bullish? karen says to buy one bank stock in particular and she is turning her back on her belove fd jamie dimon. >> i'm not turning my back on him. you know, it's still as strong between us as it ever was, only -- >> should we slap another ceo in that little bubble? >>
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 3:00pm EST
raising the debt ceiling. >> want to watch the four ps, production, politics, profits, along as profit numbers come through, the market can lift. the personal income, the jobs number and the production is the industrial expansion. this last quarter was low, but mine us 0.1% because of defense reduction. other parts of the economy are doing well, especially the consumer. >> let's talk about what took us here. bank of america doing very well, verizon, at&t. you had the financials and the telecom stocks as the leadership groups. merck was down 2%. exxon down. three dow stocks were actually down. what happened there and what are you seeing at the end of the kay? >> finally seeing the laggards catching up and telecoms have done okay during this period, but i think what uruguay seeing is the overall economic data with the exception of the weaker gkp number. all the other data was very strong and all the companies are pulling up with that. >> and then with that, swing it around, what happened there. dts. what happened to that today? so hyped, right, warren? >> we're right at the 14,000 line r
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 3:00pm EST
the fiscal cliff and here we are about to approach the debt ceiling deby the and at record highs in the market. does this become helpful. alan greenspan used to look at the stock market and say there's a wrelt effect. when the stock market is going up people aren't worried about debt. are we fooling ourselves that we're looking at the market going higher and a wealth effect going on and there's real problems that have yet to be addressed in. >> that's a great point. in each of these moments they are responding to two things. kind of an action forcing moment. we had the cliff and now we'll have the sequester and continuing res hughes, and the market wants us to resolve these issues and each time we skirt around them, again, with the bare minimum, but we don't really fix the problem, and my concern is the market responds positively because we don't have the immediate problem, but we're really putting cap on what kind of growth, recovery, real competitiveness we can have in the economy until we fix the debt overhang. what you're saying it lulls us into a complacent moment and people ar
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 6:00am EST
? >> the sequester, next debt ceiling debate, a number of items that might send the market 10% lower. >> that's true but i have too much money to think about policy and not enough thinking about the fundamentals. >> 90% of hedge funds conform the market. the stock market was up 7% and the hedge funds averaging 8% or show. lot of that average performance came from worrying about these speed bumps. >> you can argue they were hedged. >> that might be. >> if you and andrew have never seen a period 800 on the dow, then 1200, then 3200, then 4200, then 6200, that was unbelievable to watch for 20 years. if you've never seen that, you have no input or experience on how that feels or work out, right? that would be a whole new dynamic -- >> i wasn't alive. >> i know. when that gets gone -- >> there's not enough research to support that point, the way people experience things in 20s and 30s it's with them their whole lives. joe and i think the bull market is normal and you guys think they're abnormal. >> if you haven't been through that -- >> when i go meet with clients on the younger side of t
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 9:00am EST
solved the debt ceiling which we did we would unleash all of this economic activity in the first quarter. it happened already. it happened in the third quarter. happened in the fourth quarter. and we know now that gdp for all of 2012 as it stands now, 1.5%, not very good. we didn't help anything back to have a burst of activity coming forward which is why i think economists still project the first quarter another sub par quarter around 1.5. >> you're saying the phenomenon they're talking about as uncertainty was more of a tax issue only pulling the money forward to pay the lower tax rate. second issue, ghost busters. no. second issue is rotation. this is the number one topic. and what says jim bianco on the rotation conventional wisdom? >> you just hinted it. it was all about taxes in late december. everybody pulls forward. bonuses, distributions, 401(k), whatever, paid in late december. yes a lot of money went into stocks. more money went into bonds. even more money went into money market funds. everybody got money in january. because everybody got paid in late december as oppos
Search Results 0 to 25 of about 26